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Global equity markets edged higher over the week ended January 9. Sentiment was relatively muted given the situation in Venezuela and how that might impact the global economy and oil markets in particular. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index moved higher, led by the Materials sector. The yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond fell over the week. In the U.S., equities advanced. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. Treasury bond declined. Oil and gold prices both finished higher over the week.
More competition for Canada’s oil sector
Following the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. administration said it would be taking over Venezuela’s oil reserves and using the proceeds to benefit citizens of both countries.
It will start with the U.S. taking control of between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil.
The increase of Venezuelan oil to the global market raised concerns in Canada about the potential competitiveness of its own oil sector in the global market. In response, calls grew louder for an expedited construction of an oil pipeline to the West Coast, which would give Canada oil greater access to Asian markets.
As the push to get more crude oil to Asia continued, it was announced that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney would visit China and meet with President Xi Jinping in an effort to improve relations between the two countries, and discuss trade of energy and agricultural products.
Canada is looking to become less reliant on the U.S. In October, the share of Canadian exports to the U.S. fell to 67%, which was the lowest on record. Exports have fallen since the U.S. put extensive tariffs on many Canadian goods, which has the government and business community looking elsewhere to offset those losses.
North American job growth slows in December
The Canadian economy added 8,200 jobs in December, which was down from the 53,600 job additions in November. However, it surprised economists who were expecting 2,500 job losses.
The number of unemployed increased, as did the labour force, pushing the participation rate up to 65.4%, the highest level since June.
Canada’s unemployment rate increased to 6.8% in December.
In the U.S., the economy added 50,000 jobs in December, falling from the 56,000 job additions in the previous month. The U.S. unemployment rate did tick lower to 4.4%.
The data likely points to the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve Board holding steady at their respective meetings this month. Labour market conditions in both countries slowed in 2025 but have not fallen to concerningly low levels. Removing some trade uncertainty, particularly in Canada, could help strengthen consumer and business activity, and lift labour market conditions.
Europe’s inflation rate moderates
A flash estimate showed the annual inflation rate in Europe slowed to 2.0% in December from 2.1% in the previous month. The price growth for services softened in December, as did costs for non-energy industrial goods. Energy costs fell further in December over November.
The core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile items, also moderated to 2.3% in December, the lowest core rate since August.
Retail sales increased by 0.2% in November, which was its third consecutive increase.
The data reinforced the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to hold its interest rates steady at recent meetings. With inflation close to target, the ECB appears poised to hold steady at its upcoming meetings.
However, the ECB has expressed a willingness to change interest rates if economic conditions shift. At its last meeting, the ECB did not provide forward guidance due to the uncertainty still prevailing in European and global economies.
China’s sees another pickup in consumer prices
China’s annual inflation rate edged higher to 0.8% in December from 0.7% in November, matching expectations. This marked the highest rate of inflation since February 2023, easing some concerns about deflation.
Food and health-care prices accelerated in December over November, helping to push inflation higher.
Business activity ended on a really positive note, picking up in December compared to November. The RatingDog China General Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.3 in December from 51.2 in November.
The manufacturing sector returned to expansion after shrinking in November. Easing trade tensions and government stimulus measures may help industrial activity in China improve. Services sector activity expanded at largely the same pace in December over November.
China’s economic outlook remains a bit clouded amid soft domestic demand. However, government efforts to boost consumer and industrial activity, along with easing trade tensions with the U.S., may support growth.



